The global occurrence and economic consequences of stripe rust in wheat

Phillip Pardey

Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota

stripe rust    

There is emerging evidence that the geographical footprint of stripe rust is expanding, opening up prospects for an increase in economic losses attributable to this disease worldwide. Drawing on newly compiled data, along with insights obtained from a survey initiated at the BGRI meeting in New Delhi in August 2013, this talk will report on efforts to model the global occurrence and persistence of stripe rust in a geo-spatially sensitive fashion. Using the available data in conjunction with these newly developed climate suitability maps, I will present probabilistic crop production losses associated with the disease and place an economic value on the prospective losses. Given changes in the geographical spread of this disease, and the associated uncertainties about its likely wheat yield and economic effects, various scenarios will be assessed to inform and thereby help shape the research investment decisions regarding crop breeding and other options for ameliorating these prospective losses over the longer term.